America’s top polling firms are showing that President Donald Trump is currently losing to Democratic rival Joe Biden — but they don’t tell the entire story.
CNN elections expert Harry Enten has examined “more than a dozen” of internal Republican and conservative polls that have been publicly released, and he’s found that they all show “Trump clearly underperforming his 2016 showing.”
On average, Enten discovered that the polls show Trump is doing around 5 points worse than he did in 2016 among multiple states and districts.
If this pattern holds true on election day, he argues, Trump will be easily defeated.
“If Trump actually did 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the swing states, it would mean he’d lose Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” he writes. “Those states, plus the ones Hillary Clinton won in 2016, would be more than enough for Biden to get over 270 electoral votes.”
What’s more, Enten says that the situation could be even more dire for the president than this because these are polls that Republicans are actually willing to share with the public, which means that there are likely several other internal polls showing the president doing even worse.
“The bottom line is that there’s really no reason to think that the Republicans have some secret polling putting Trump in a better position than the public polling does,” he concludes. “The signs, in fact, point in the opposite direction.”