Monday, November 23, 2020
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What should the Eagles expect to pay to trade up in the 2020 NFL Draft?



Each year, we project what the cost will be for the Philadelphia Eagles to move up in the draft. Last year we did so with the idea that they might move for a defensive lineman. Instead they moved up for Andre Dillard. This year it feels a lot more simple:

  1. The Eagles desperately need playmakers, specifically at the wide receiver position.

  2. The top three wide receivers in the 2020 NFL are overwhelmingly considered to be Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, and Alabama’s Henry Ruggs.

  3. Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs are all likely to be gone by the time the Eagles select at pick No. 21.

And so, let’s go back 15 or so years and see what the cost was to move up from the five-pick window right around that 21st spot (anywhere between 19 and 23).

The Steelers moved from 20 to 10.

 Steelers gave up… They got back… 
 20th overall (1st round)  10th overall (1st round)
 52nd overall (2nd round)  
 3rd round pick in 2020  
It’s noteworthy that there weren’t any super-appealing quarterbacks still on the board, so there wasn’t that added premium on trading up. With four quarterbacks likely to go top 20 in the 2020 draft, there’s an argument to be made that the cost to move to 10 from 21 will likely be higher than the package the Steelers paid here. The sooner that Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love are all off the board, the better for the Eagles’ chances of finding a reasonable deal.

2018

The Bills moved from 21 to 12, in March of 2018, well before the draft, like the Eagles initially did before they traded up again to land Carson Wentz.

Bills gave up…  They got back… 
 21st overall (1st round)  12th overall (1st round)
 158th overall (5th round)  187th overall (6th round)
 OT Cordy Glenn  

That trade isn’t a great measure of a trade, as a player (Glenn) brought value.

The Bills also traded up from their other first round pick that year, moving from 22 to 16.

 Bills gave up… They got back… 
 22nd overall (1st round) 16th overall (1st round) 
 65th overall (3rd round)  154th overall (5th round)

To note, the 65th overall pick was the first pick in the third round, so almost the the same as a late 2.

2016

Washington moved up one spot from 22 to 21.

Washington gave up…  They got back… 
 22nd overall (1st round) 21st overall (1st round) 
 6th round pick in 2017  

The Eagles moving a spot or two is a possible scenario if they fear that similarly wide receiver desperate Bills (sitting right behind the Birds at 22) might try to jump them.


MORE: Eagles favorites to win NFC East, third best odds to win entire conference | Eytan Shander: Every single year, the Eagles swing and miss on receivers and cornerbacks


2010

The Eagles moved from 24 to 13. Yes, this falls outside of the 19-23 range we identified earlier, but we should probably include this one because (a) it involves the Eagles, and (b) they used a pair of third-round picks to move up, which is noteworthy because they are projected to have two third-round picks in the 2020 draft.

The Eagles gave up…  They got back… 
 24th overall (1st round) 13th overall (1st round) 
 70th overall (3rd round)  
 87th overall (3rd round)  

It took a while, but that move up eventually paid off.

2009

The Eagles moved from 21 to 19.

Eagles gave up…  They got back… 
21st overall (1st round)  19th overall (1st round)
 195th overall (6th round)  

That pick was used to select Jeremy Maclin, of course.

2007

The Broncos moved from 21 to 16.

Broncos gave up…  They got back… 
 21st overall (1st round)  17th overall (1st round)
 86th overall (3rd round)  
 198th overall (6th round)  

This looks somewhat similar to the cost the Eagles paid to move from 25 to 22 in the 2019 draft (the Eagles gave up 25th overall, a 4, and a 6).

Conclusion

I think the sweet spot for a potential trade-up would be if one of the three receivers fell into the mid-to-late teens, where the cost could be something close to a third round pick to move up. As noted already, the Eagles are projected to have two third-round picks at their disposal this year.


MORE: Eagles-only 2020 mock draft, version 3.0 | Eagles mock draft roundup


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